Elections 2015

In 2010 Sudan’s first elections since the 1980s took place as part of the CPA, designed in theory to open up Sudan to democratic governance.  Instead, and quite predictably it opened up an opportunity for Bashir to legitimise his rule both domestically and internationally. Bashir’s NCP party won the election by a significantly (some say suspiciously) high margin. The main opposition parties, the SPLM under Yasir Arman, the Umma Party under Al-Sadig al Mahdi and Al-Mirghani’s Democratic Union Party (DUP) all boycotted the election.  This gave rise top the popular movement ‘Girifna’ (We are fed up) which saw the boycott as a cowardly move by opposition parties and called for a sea-change in the political landscape, currently dominated by the old guard. In their defence, the parties claimed that the election result was predictable and proved that not much had changed despite the post-CPA euphoria.

Due to the late stage pulling out of certain candidates, the ballot papers could not be changed so some candidates still got some votes:

Candidate	Party	Proportion (%)	Number of votes
Omer Bashir	NCP	62.24	6,901,694
Yassir Arman	SPLM	21.69	2,193,826
Abdullah Deng Nhial	Popular Congress Party	3.94	396,139
Hatim Al-Sir	DUP	1.93	195,668
Al-Sadig Al-Mahdi	NUP	0.96	96,868

Looking ahead:

In April 2014, Bashir announced that he would run again in 2015 despite having promised that he wouldn’t the year before. He had stressed the need to inject fresh blood in the party, but had also left the door open saying that the matter would ultimately be decided by the Shura Council and the National Congress Party’s general convention. The party chairman Ghandour has recently come out as saying that Bashir is the natural candidate for the NCP for the upcoming elections.

Recently, Musa Mohammed Ahmed from the former Eastern rebel group, the Beja Congress has called on the NCP to delay elections and reach consensus on a permanent constitution. Others have similarly urged for a reconsideration regarding the election schedule, from Al-Mahdi’s Umma party to Mirghani’s DUP in regards to national reform and the beleaguered national dialogue process.

Yvonne Helle, the UNDP Country Representative and the EU (through training of election staff) both seem to press forward despite opposition parties’ hesitance about the timing and sequence of the elections (vis-a-vis the constitution etc).  Helle has said that the UN would send a special mission in December to meet with the NEC and government officials to outline areas for support in the 2015 elections, she has not committed to any financial support.

In November 2014, the NEC deputy director, Mukhtar Al-Asam, urged political parties and civil society organisation to agree on an election law and stressed the need for early preparedness ahead of the elections.  He pointed out that the constitutional organ’s mandate expires on April 2015 making it imperative for a new mandate to be given lest there be a constitutional vacuum.  There has been no official response giving rise to questions of whether the elections can happen come April of 2015.

There are several questions to consider including on finances, legitimacy, public trust, free and fair campaigning and continuing conflict:

• Election commission: will the same people (NEC secretary general Jalal Mohamed Ahmed; NEC deputy director, Mukhtar Al-Asam) lead it? How will it gain credibility ahead of the elections, given that it is the same group who ran the last election?

• Will the elections be as ill-planned like last time? Will there be public trust in the process and the implementation given the claims of corruption and fixing in 2010?

• Is the result a foregone conclusion? Given that the conditions they have set have not been met and seem likely to not be met: will opposition groups boycott the elections again?

• Can attempts to stifle opposition (extra-judicial arrests etc) be seen as scuppering their chances to win any seats?

• What will the security situation be like when the elections take place? Can elections take place when so much of the two areas are impenetrable and therefore likely to be ignored come Election Day?

• Where will the money to finance the elections, currently 800million Sudanese pounds (National Election Commission estimate), come from?

• Will the EU and the UN continue to support the government while major opposition groups are objecting? 

Key political parties and armed groups with political power

NCP - The National Congress Party

In power since it broke away from the National Islamic Front in 1991. It is headed by the President Omer al-Bashir and has a pronounced Islamic ideology and strong military base.  Al-Bashir himself is a Field Marshal but has moved the party to become a more political group whilst maintaining strong military ties.

NCF - The National Consensus Forces

Set up in 2012, this is a coalition of Sudanese opposition political parties attempting to remove the National Congress Party (NCP) from power. Currently led by former Nimeiri Foreign Minister Farouk Abu Essa the group consists of the Umma Party (NUP), the Popular Congress Party and the Sudanese Communist Party.

NUP – The National Umma Party

Led by twice Prime Minister al-Sadiq al-Mahdi, this party had widespread support through the Mahdi heartland of Kordofan, Darfur and the Dongola region of Northern Sudan.  Largely a sect, this group has always played a lead role is Sudanese politics since independence and has relied on its steady base of Mahdi followers as well as the legacy of Mohammed Ahmad Al-Mahdi (the forbear of current leader Al-Sadiq) who fought the British in battles in the 1890s and won.

PCP – The Popular Congress Party

Led by Hassan al-Turabi, a prominent figure in Sudanese politics since his university days in the 1960s. The party was founded after his ousting from the NCP in 1999.  He has recently made peace with al-Bashir who has arrested, jailed and held him under house arrest on and off for many years. Despite this recent rapprochement al-Turabi now advocates for the removal of the NCP through popular uprising.

SCP – The Sudan Communist Party

Founded in 1946 this party is one of the oldest in Sudan and has played a leading role in recent Sudanese history. Recently however it has not managed to capture the imagination of the youth and has seen some of its support wane. Its charismatic leader Mohammed Ibrahim Nugud died in 2012 leaving Muhamed Mukhtar al-Khatib in charge.

DUP – The Democratic Unionist Party

Led by Mohammed Osman al-Mirghani this party was founded in 1967 in a merger between the National Unionist Party (which initially wanted unity with Egypt at independence) and the People’s Democratic Party (which is traditionally based on the Khatmiyya sect followers).  The party leadership signed a reconciliation agreement with the ruling NCP in 2005 and entered into government in 2011.  Mohammed Mirghani’s son Ja’far al- Sadiq recently became a presidential aide.

The Unionist Movement is a faction of the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP).  Its main point of contention is the decision of leader Mohamed Osman Al-Mirghani to join a coalition government led by ruling National Congress Party (NCP).  This move came after the independence of South Sudan in July 2011.

The Unionist Movement is now also a member of the opposition alliance National Consensus Forces (NCF) and in October 2012 signed a memorandum of understanding with the rebel alliance of the Sudanese Revolutionary Front (SRF).

Armed groups

SRF – the Sudan Revolutionary Forces

Made up of the following major armed groups (see below) opposing the government in key conflict zones of Darfur, Kordofan and Blue Nile. On 7^th August 2011, the signing of a formal alliance between SLA-MM, SLA-AW, and SPLM-North under the banner of the SRF took place. The parties pledged to join militarily and politically to work to overthrow the National Congress Party and establish a secular, liberal state. The Justice and Equality Movement (JEM) initially withdrew at the last moment over the issue of a secular state. They have since joined the SRF.

SPLM-N – Sudan People’s Liberation Movement/Army – North (in South Kordofan and Blue Nile)

The SPLM-N describes itself as "a Sudanese national movement that seeks to change the policies of the centre in Khartoum and to build a new centre for the benefit of all Sudanese people regardless of their religion, gender or ethnicity background". It was founded in 2011 after the secession of South Sudan left many on the border without political and military support. It is a banned political and military party made up of former SPLM leadership including Malik Agar (from Blue Nile), Yasir Arman (northern Sudanese) as well as former Deputy Governor of South Kordofan Abdel-Aziz al-Hilu.

JEM – Justice and Equality Movement (Darfur)

The Justice and Equality Movement has been viewed by some as the armed wing of the Islamist Popular Congress Party led by Hassan al-Turabi. This is because of a long history of many of its members as followers of Sheikh Hassan Al Turabi. Though they had denied any ongoing affiliation with al-Turabi, his revolutionary radicalism has been palpable particularly during the leadership of Khalil Ibrahim. The party membership represents mainly the Kobe Zaghawa group, of which only a small minority reside in North-Eastern Darfur, the rest in Chad. Despite this and unlike the SLA (see below), JEM has designs on national action rather than focusing on the regional like the SLA (see below).  Their fight for power in Khartoum has seen them attempt to take over the capital in 2008.

More disciplined than other rebel groups JEM has however also suffered from several splits, largely on ethnic lines.  After capitalising on its links with Chad and its ethnic link with Chadian President Deby, himself a Kobe Zaghawa, JEM became a powerful player. Seeking to undercut the influence of JEM internally and across the border, the Government of Sudan made peace with Deby thereby restricting the materiel support to JEM. Khalil was subsequently expelled to Libya where he was allegedly kept under house arrest.  That did not stop rumours circulating that he was working as a mercenary for Gaddafi given the latter propensity for using African mercenaries.  In 2011, after Gadaffi fell, Khalil returned to Sudan and was killed by an airstrike that same year.  His brother Jibril Ibrahim is the current leader.

SLA-AW – Sudan Liberation Army – Abdel Wahid (Darfur)

From its inception in 2001 the two tribes of the SLA (Fur and Zaghawa) had markedly different agendas. The Fur leaders of the SLA were drawn to John Garang and his SPLM party’s vision of a ‘New Sudan’ and saw the target of their rebellion essentially as the government. For the Zaghawa the struggle was much more local, organising against the Arab militias with whom they competed with in the camel trade.

In mid-2004 the Zaghawa attacked the Fur heartland of Jebel Marra. Since then, and especially since the signing of 2006’s Darfur Peace Agreement (DPA), the movement has split into a dozen factions, largely along tribal lines. All attempts to reunite it have failed.

Abdul Wahid Mohamed al Nur, the original chairman of the SLA, is increasingly contested by his commanders and has seen his legitimacy wane.  This is largely due to his long absences abroad and what is seen as an erratic style of leadership. His main home abroad has been Paris but since his refusal to join the peace talks in Qatar in 2011 he has gotten less support from the French. Abdul-Wahid has been decreasing his support to his commanders in the field and refusing to meet with high-level visitors, even those from his own tribe. Within the party and amongst his colleagues in the SRF he has therefore lost credibility and reputation. But without a viable alternative to his leadership the group has been unable to regain support.

SLA-MM – Sudan Liberation Army – Minni Minawi (Darfur)

This branch is headed by Minni Minawi whose faction split after a power struggle based mainly on ethnic lines, affecting the credibility and strength of both resulting factions. By 2011 SLA-MM and SLA-AW — both under attack by government troops and air force — were said to desire a new era of cooperation fuelled by the new conflict between the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement-North and the Government of Sudan.  This led to the formation of a coalition under the SRF umbrella.

Despite having no military experience, Minawi, was successful in leading the movement’s main military forces before the split. In May 2006 he was one of few rebel leaders who signed the Darfur Peace Agreement (DPA) with the government.  This allowed him to become senior assistant to President Bashir and chairman of the Transitional Darfur Regional Authority (TDRA). The positions turned out to be symbolic and his power negligible. Further his positions were not renewed after the 2010 elections, which many saw primarily as a vehicle to legitimise Bashir’s rule.  At the end of that same year Minawi moved from Khartoum to Juba, declaring himself once more in rebellion and the DPA void.