Elections 2015

In 2010 Sudan’s first elections since the 1980s took place as part of the CPA, designed in theory to open up Sudan to democratic governance.  Instead, and quite predictably it opened up an opportunity for Bashir to legitimise his rule both domestically and internationally. Bashir’s NCP party won the election by a significantly (some say suspiciously) high margin. The main opposition parties, the SPLM under Yasir Arman, the Umma Party under Al-Sadig al Mahdi and Al-Mirghani’s Democratic Union Party (DUP) all boycotted the election.  This gave rise top the popular movement ‘Girifna’ (We are fed up) which saw the boycott as a cowardly move by opposition parties and called for a sea-change in the political landscape, currently dominated by the old guard. In their defence, the parties claimed that the election result was predictable and proved that not much had changed despite the post-CPA euphoria.

Due to the late stage pulling out of certain candidates, the ballot papers could not be changed so some candidates still got some votes:

Candidate	Party	Proportion (%)	Number of votes
Omer Bashir	NCP	62.24	6,901,694
Yassir Arman	SPLM	21.69	2,193,826
Abdullah Deng Nhial	Popular Congress Party	3.94	396,139
Hatim Al-Sir	DUP	1.93	195,668
Al-Sadig Al-Mahdi	NUP	0.96	96,868

Looking ahead:

In April 2014, Bashir announced that he would run again in 2015 despite having promised that he wouldn’t the year before. He had stressed the need to inject fresh blood in the party, but had also left the door open saying that the matter would ultimately be decided by the Shura Council and the National Congress Party’s general convention. The party chairman Ghandour has recently come out as saying that Bashir is the natural candidate for the NCP for the upcoming elections.

Recently, Musa Mohammed Ahmed from the former Eastern rebel group, the Beja Congress has called on the NCP to delay elections and reach consensus on a permanent constitution. Others have similarly urged for a reconsideration regarding the election schedule, from Al-Mahdi’s Umma party to Mirghani’s DUP in regards to national reform and the beleaguered national dialogue process.

Yvonne Helle, the UNDP Country Representative and the EU (through training of election staff) both seem to press forward despite opposition parties’ hesitance about the timing and sequence of the elections (vis-a-vis the constitution etc).  Helle has said that the UN would send a special mission in December to meet with the NEC and government officials to outline areas for support in the 2015 elections, she has not committed to any financial support.

In November 2014, the NEC deputy director, Mukhtar Al-Asam, urged political parties and civil society organisation to agree on an election law and stressed the need for early preparedness ahead of the elections.  He pointed out that the constitutional organ’s mandate expires on April 2015 making it imperative for a new mandate to be given lest there be a constitutional vacuum.  There has been no official response giving rise to questions of whether the elections can happen come April of 2015.

There are several questions to consider including on finances, legitimacy, public trust, free and fair campaigning and continuing conflict:

• Election commission: will the same people (NEC secretary general Jalal Mohamed Ahmed; NEC deputy director, Mukhtar Al-Asam) lead it? How will it gain credibility ahead of the elections, given that it is the same group who ran the last election?

• Will the elections be as ill-planned like last time? Will there be public trust in the process and the implementation given the claims of corruption and fixing in 2010?

• Is the result a foregone conclusion? Given that the conditions they have set have not been met and seem likely to not be met: will opposition groups boycott the elections again?

• Can attempts to stifle opposition (extra-judicial arrests etc) be seen as scuppering their chances to win any seats?

• What will the security situation be like when the elections take place? Can elections take place when so much of the two areas are impenetrable and therefore likely to be ignored come Election Day?

• Where will the money to finance the elections, currently 800million Sudanese pounds (National Election Commission estimate), come from?

• Will the EU and the UN continue to support the government while major opposition groups are objecting?