Tuesday, February 21, 2012

A prolonged, messy divorce

After the divorce of Southern Sudan from Sudan, the authorities made it clear that dual nationality would not be an option.   Recently, it has been announced that a date has been set: on 8th of April, all those considered 'southerners' will be stripped of their citizenship.  The consequences of this will be huge, with as many as 1 million people becoming illegal settlers in their own country on the basis of their ethnicity, even if they had been born, had lived and had worked there all their life.  In general terms, the two countries identify themselves with Arab Muslim culture in the North, and Christian culture in the South, and it is along these rough lines that citizenship will be decided. There does not seem to be any clear arrangement for those 'southern' Sudanese who wish to stay in the North, with only vague talks of residency permits.  The reality for most will be an uprootment of their homes and lives to go and live in a strange country.

The effect of this effectively forced mass 'repatriation' are especially salient in light of the recent developments in what the New York Times called "an exceedingly dangerous game of brinkmanship over billions of gallons of oil". South Sudan announced in January that it was halting its oil output following a row with the Sudan.  The South containts a majority of the previously united Sudan’s oil reserves, but the north has the refineries and pipelines; conventional wisdom argues that the two sides need each other for their economies to survive.  They are unable to do so, with the North claiming huge charged for transport and the South refusing, as President Salva Kiir said, to continue to hand over its oil revenues to the old enemies in Khartoum.

This halting of oil output has meant that the South's administration has also announced that it will be halving its spending on everything but salaries to compensate.  Who is going to provide for the influx of those crossing the border from Sudan into South Sudan?  An already tumultuous, underdeveloped and unstable state will have to deal with hige and sudden stream of people, most likely leading to a humanitarian crisis.

A cynic would argue that this is part of the North's tactic to gain control of the oil regions, weakening the South by using humanitarian needs as a weapon.  Though the contract may be signed, the messy divorce of this long-unhappy union is far from finished.

1 comment:

grand resume said...

So interesting! Thanks a lot for post.