Sudan and South Sudan: not quite peace

On 14^th July, five days after its independence, South Sudan was welcomed as the 193^rd member of the United Nations. The international community has accompanied South Sudan in their struggle for independence since the peace process in the early 2000s and the 2005 Comprehensive Peace Agreement. A lot has been accomplished, indeed. Yet as the 4,200 Ethiopian peacekeepers who are being deployed in the Abyei area know all too well – peace has not yet been achieved.

Abyei, Southern Kordofan and Blue Nile State are the so-called “Three areas” whose status was left undetermined by the CPA, and which continue to cause conflict betweent the two countries. Their status is still disputed – both Sudan and South Sudan claim to have the right to sovereignty over the areas, and the local populations are split. During the past months, the areas have been arenas for violence, killings, mass displacement and destruction. Despite several attempts at agreements between the two parties, none have proved sustainable.

All three areas share some of the same features. They are inhabited by a whole array of different ethnic groups, some of which consider themselves “northerners” (e.g. the Misseriya), and others who consider themselves “southerners” (e.g. the Dinka). Traditionally, conflicts between these local groups regarding land rights etc were solved on the local level, and they lived relatively peacefully side by side for long periods of time. During the civil war, however, they were caught up in the struggle between the north and the south. With the division of the country, the dispute is likely to solidify.

Southern Kordofan and to a certain degree also Abyei have significant oil resources, which adds another dimension to the conflict. Southern Kordofan is furthermore inhabited by the Nuba people, who have themselves waged an independence war against the Sudanese government. Many of the Nuba fought alongside the South in the civil war, but more due to the enemy they had in common than out of affinity with the South. They do thus not necessarily want to join South Sudan, nor would they remain in Sudan. Blue Nile State is also important due to its water resources and the energy it generates. These factors further complicate the picture.

Particularly Southern Kordofan and Abyei have experienced heavy fighting and displacement in the recent months. The situation in Blue Nile State is relatively stable compared to the other two, but is very fragile. The situations in the three areas are very interlinked, and developments in one will surely influence the others. Blue Nile State may therefore easily fall into violence as well.

Both countries seem set on insisting on their rights to these areas, and the militarization of the areas during the past months, including the heavy fighting, is a strong sign that neither party has excluded war as a potential means to achieve their goals. War would, however, be a tragic step for both sides, who only a few years ago ended decades of war. It is up to the parties and to the international community to find a path out of this situation of deadlock, and find a solution to the status of the three areas. UNISFA, the Ethiopian peacekeeping mission in Abyei, will hopefully maintain the peace there, but cannot provide a final solution. That must come from Khartoum and Juba. After all these efforts and hard-earned achievements, the international community must not abandon them at this point, when they are so close to what could become a sustainable peace.