The potential for war looms over the Sudans

As July 9^th (the planned date for the secession of Southern Sudan from the rest of the country) is approaching, the dispute over the Abyei area continues. The contested area has never been addressed properly, and is now increasingly becoming a headache for the efforts being made for a peaceful separation of the country. Following the Northern army’s seizure of Abyei and the displacement of at least 100,000 people since May (according to UNHCR), the North and the South have now agreed to demilitarize the area, under the auspices of 4,200 Ethiopian UN peacekeepers (UNISFA). These measures are yet to be put in place.

It is unlikely that the overall plan of secession will be shattered by the Abyei dispute and violence. After all, it has been known from the days before the Comprehensive Peace Agreement that Abyei is a particularly problematic case (it was not included in the CPA and in the referendum earlier this year). The president of Sudan, the infamous war criminal Omar al-Bashir, confirmed as late as today that he supports the secession to take place on July 9^th. The separation of the country, then, will most likely take place without Northern interference.

Due to border conflicts, however, what happens after independence remains very unclear, and Abyei, in addition to the ethnically-divided Northern state of South Kordofan, is one of the potential hot spots that may lead the two soon-to-be-born countries on a path toward war. The borders between the North and the South are far from being mutually agreed upon. The complex ethnic composition of the people living in the border areas, in addition to the valuable oil resources continue to create obstacles to peaceful relations. Al-Bashir himself stated recently that he is ready for war, and the SPLM seems to be on the same track. The recent military clashes in the border areas are clear testaments to this. As if this weren’t enough of a concern, the many inter-tribal conflicts add an additional violent dimension to the imminent independence of the South.

For these reasons many aid agencies are currently calling upon the international community to provide additional UN peacekeepers to Southern Sudan. Most things remain uncertain, but one could safely say this: even though independence for Southern Sudan is surely necessary and desirable, it is not sufficient to bring immediate peace to a part of the world which has been haunted by war for most of its postcolonial history. And although peacekeepers do have an important role to play, they cannot create peace.